It’s a busy time of year from an earnings perspective, and the real world has gotten in the way of my normal posting schedule.

However, I’m pretty happy with the earnings results so far, as most of my current positions have performed well – some more so than others.

While one quarter’s (or even a year or longer in many cases) performance doesn’t make or break the merits of a selection, I continue to monitor my investment thesis closely for any signs of deterioration, whether from competition, changing market conditions, or other catalysts.

To be more efficient, I’m going to combine several earnings reports into a series of summary posts.

AMCON Distributing Co. (DIT)

Despite a challenging distributing environment and significantly higher energy costs, AMCON turned in a solid quarter.

Second quarter revenues came in at $206m, down 6% from $230m during the same quarter in 2010. The majority of this decrease was a lower volume of cigarette sales (down $18.7m) that was not offset by a corresponding increase in cigarette prices (up $5.9m).

Net income was $1.5m, down 12%, translating to quarterly EPS of $2.56.

While the income statement showed some pressure, management continues to strengthen the balance sheet.

Due to the nature of the DIT’s business model (i.e. extremely low margins, decent operating leverage), it was good to see the company pay off $5.8m in debt during the quarter.

More importantly, the company renewed its credit agreement with Bank of America – an absolutely vital lifeline for the distributing side of the business – for another 3 years on significantly better terms:

Amcon Distributing DIT Credit Agreement

Management continues to take a long-term perspective, not only in expansion but in potential acquisition targets as well:

“We are delighted to have an enhanced credit facility that we believe will give us additional flexibility to take advantage of potential acquisitions and merchant opportunities …We are taking a long range view as we continue to make investments in foodservice, technology and related value added propositions designed to increase our customers’ bottom line… We are carefully evaluating new store locations in both of the regions we operate in. Our recent store opening in Tulsa, Oklahoma has met our expectations. Our niche in the retail market is well defined and we believe there is room to prudently expand…”

Sparton Corp (SPA)

After reporting tough second quarter results back in February, Sparton’s stock sold off sharply over the next few days, dropping almost 20%, despite reasonable explanations for the mixed results and several positive developments.

The confidence was vindicated with the third quarter results this week, as quarterly revenues shot up more than 30% to $50.3m, compared to $38.6m in the third quarter last year.

The new acquisition of Byers Peak is providing immediate gains – with further margin improvements possible due to the planned plant consolidation – and the EMS segment finally showed a big jump in margins as management focuses on profitable contracts.

This margin improvement led to the largest quarterly gross profit in over five years, with quarterly net income more than tripling to $2.5m, or $0.25 per share.

The turnaround is continuing nicely, setting up SPA for its stated (and very bold) goal of reaching $500m in sales by 2015.

Advant-E Corp (ADVC)

The company continues to chug along with steadily improving results. First quarter revenue was up 5% to $2.3m, compared to $2.2m in the same period the previous year.

Edict Systems, the amazingly-consistent SaaS growth machine, turned out another 2% revenue increase, but the big surprise was the Merkur Group with a 22% jump in sales.

Merkur was hit hard during the recession – even posting small losses – but the acquisition is looking better as the economy recovers.

Net income was up to $385k, equal to $0.006 per share, up 45% over the first quarter last year.

More importantly, the company announced another special dividend of $0.02 per share, payable in two installments during the remainder of 2011. The last special dividend was a big part of the original investment thesis.

By the end of 2012, the company will have returned $0.05 per share in dividends in less than two years – almost 20% of the current market cap – once again showing a commitment to rewarding “shareholders, many of whom are long-term investors in the Company.”

Gaming Partners International (GPIC)

I was very late in posting my viewpoint on GPIC’s 2010 financial results, as the company quickly followed up my post by announcing stellar first quarter earnings.

According to the press release,

“For the first quarter of 2011, the Company posted revenues of $17.8 million and net income of $1.7 million, or $0.21 per basic and diluted share. These results compare to revenues of $10.9 million and net income of $37,000, or $0.00 per basic and diluted share, for the first quarter of 2010.”

And backing up my thesis:

“The primary reason for the significant increase in first quarter 2011 net income was comparably higher sales of chips to casinos in Macau.”

As far as the company’s prospects for the rest of 2011, consider this:

GPIC’s first quarter EPS of $0.21 is roughly 40% of the company’s earnings for all of 2010, the 2nd best year in the company’s history, AND the first quarter is usually the slowest of the year.

While the company warned that the rest of the year will unlikely match these results, I think it bodes well for the annual outlook (and hopefully the stock price!).

Concluding Thoughts

I continue to look for ways to raise additional cash in the portfolio, as I remain skeptical on the overall market.

However, there are quite a few stocks, including a few international ones, that I am tracking closely. I’ve had 6-7 bids outstanding for many weeks, as I continue to remain patient about picking up shares in some of these illiquid issues.

I hope to showcase some fresh analysis over the coming months.

Make sure to stay tuned for Part II as more holdings report their results.

Disclosure

Long DIT, SPA, ADVC, & GPIC

Weekend Values – May 8, 2011

Posted May 8th, 2011. Filed under Investing Links

As usual, a few of the best value investing links from the past two weeks:

2011 Berkshire Meeting Notes

For those (like myself) who weren’t able to attend the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, this is the next best thing…

Check out these awesome notes for a full breakdown of more than 6 hours of Q&A with Buffett and Munger.

Dainichi Co. Ltd (TYO:5951)

I’ve been doing quite a bit of research on Japanese stocks over the past few weeks – the country has its share of problems, but also boasts some very strong net-net stocks…

This is a great example of thinking through an investment that appears very attractive from a balance sheet perspective. Dainichi has 65% of its market cap in cash, but a closer look at the cash flow statements shows a much different story.

Metalrax (MRX:LSE)

A tiny UK stock, Metalrax was recently added to Richard Beddard’s Thrifty 30, a nice list on one of the best UK value investing blogs.

While many of the best UK stocks are traded on the AIM exchange (similar to the OTCBB, and therefore off-limits through most U.S. discount brokers), there are certainly some gems.

Read the entire series on MRX for the details, but the company has been showing sales growth backed by significant insider purchases.

Yukon Gold Nevada Corporation (YNGFF.PK)

Yukon Gold is a stock that was featured on Weekend Values back in August 2010, after a well-researched write-up.

Recently, the stock has been hammered, down more than 50% so far this year on unusual pricing action. Due to severe weather causing delays, management is deciding to raise (possibly dilutive?) cash in order to fund additional investments in the mine.

Many investors still seem bullish on the stock’s prospects so it definitely remains on the watch list (although outside of my personal circle of competence).

Suggestions

If you have suggestions for detailed analysis examples from other value investors, please drop me a line using the Contact Form.

I’m always open to ideas from other investors, especially for a thoughtful and well-researched investment articles.

Disclosure

No positions.

 

GPIC continues to dominate the casino chip market worldwide, and will benefit from the explosive growth in gambling in Asia.

The economics of this business are solid, as GPIC’s products are ‘sticky.’ Consider:

– all new casinos need chips

– casino chips must eventually be replaced

– most casinos will tend to stick with a sole supplier for their replacements.

This also allows for cross-sell opportunities among the company’s other product segments.

While the business will generally be variable due to the timing of new casino openings, GPIC has maintained profitability and just reported much improved results for the fourth quarter and 2010 fiscal year.

Financial Information

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, revenues increased 5% to $16.6m compared to $15.8m in 2009. Net income for the quarter came in at $1m or $0.12 per share, compared to $1.7m or $0.21 per share in the previous year.

Full-year revenues jumped 20.9% to $59.9m, driven primarily by the record-breaking third quarter, which coincided with several major casino openings in the U.S. market.

The company benefited from improved gross margin, increasing from 32.1% to 36.2%, as the company’s product mix shifted towards higher-margin Paulson chips and plaques/jetons (which carry a much higher price point: $3 – $20 for these European-style chips compared to $1 – $5 range for normal chips).

With this momentum, reported EBIT was $6.4m, up significantly from the 2009 figure of $1.2m, a number which was negatively affected by a $1.5m goodwill impairment charge.

Net income for the full year was $4.4m, translating into EPS of $0.54.

Balance Sheet

While company appears undervalued on an earnings basis, the balance sheet is a key part of the investment thesis.

Book value has increased every year since 2006, and the company now sits on $29.7m in cash and marketable securities. Of this amount, $18.1m is held overseas by GPI SAS, with the balance of $11.7m at GPI USA.

Even if the $18.1m overseas cannot be returned to the U.S. because of tax implications, there still remains significant excess cash in the U.S. operations, while still allowing the company to reinvest money back into the business on the international side (where much of the growth is coming from).

The company has paid dividends in 3 out of the last 5 years, with the most recent announcement in Dec 2010 for a special dividend of $1.5m, or $0.1825 per share.

In an unusual transaction, the company actually borrowed the money in order to pay this dividend, with the loan secured by certificates of deposit due later in the year. The details:

“In December 2010, GPI SAS borrowed 5.0 million euros (approximately $6.7 million in December 2010) to be repaid by July 2011 without prepayment penalty and at an interest rate equal to 50 basis points over the three-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR). We incurred this debt to fund the payment of the $6.6 million dividend to GPIC in order to avoid liquidating higher yielding marketable securities.”

I applaud this move as a creative way to return cash to shareholders in 2010 without prematurely sacrificing returns on existing investments.

Growth Opportunities

If you’ve read my background, you might be able to guess that I’m very bullish on the prospects for casinos and gambling in general. China’s middle class is exploding – with tens of millions of people with newfound wealth, with gambling just one of the possible (but proven) outlets.

In December 2010, the company announced the creation of GPI Asia, in order to market existing product lines in this white-hot market.

Meanwhile, many states in the U.S. are stuck with gigantic budget deficits and are increasingly turning towards gambling as a way to raise additional tax money.

A few examples:

As the number one player in the casino chip market – and with an exclusive license in the U.S. for RFID technology for at least the next few years – GPIC is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this growth.

Valuation

GPIC 2010 Stock Valuation

Recent results do not materially change my original valuation estimate, as the stock still appears undervalued based on current and future earnings.

Even with the most conservative assumptions for DCF and EPV, I find it hard to come up with a value less than $8-9 per share.

At current prices, the stock is trading at with an EV/EBIT multiple of 5.3x and EV/FCF of 6.5x.

Compare 2010 financial results to 2006:

GPIC 2010 & 2006 Comparison

2010 financials are roughly 20% lower than 2006’s record year, yet the company’s current enterprise value is 75% lower than in 2006, when the stock price was almost $18 per share.

Conclusion

2010 was definitely a great year, arguably the second-best in the company’s history, and yet the stock trades at one of the lowest multiples in its history.

This is despite the fact that the business is earning double digit returns on equity, to go along with average ROIC and CROIC of 17.7% and 24.4% respectively (the business is cyclical however, so short-term results can swing wildly).

The company has grown book value by 11% annually for the last ten years, and now sits on a significant cash balance that can fund additional growth or used to reward shareholders in the form of dividends or buybacks.

Going forward, I see two positive outcomes:

Mr. Market reawakens and values GPIC at a more appropriate multiple

– The company returns some of the excess cash to shareholders if management cannot find a way to reinvest it at a satisfactory rate of return

The recent purchase of GPIC’s injection mold supplier – while not material – seems to be a good move to consolidate the supply chain and shows that management is looking for ways to utilize this excess cash.

Meanwhile, the appetite for casino gambling will only grow – and the market for casino chips along with it.

Check out my original post on Gaming Partners International (GPIC.OB), as it contains much of the background information on the company.

Disclosure

Long GPIC